Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
نویسندگان
چکیده
Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation—spatial averages based on the locations of each crop—explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world’s six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale.
منابع مشابه
Actual impacts of global warming on winter wheat yield in Eastern Himalayas
Himalayas, are among the areas most vulnerable to global warming, however, little is knownabout warming impacts on the crops. Therefore, the actual affects of anticipated warming onwinter wheat were tested in Tibet, China. During the period 1988-2012, Tibet region hasexperienced a large increase in daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures during wheatgrowing seasons by 0.50, 0.67 and 0.51 o...
متن کاملThe Study of Most Important Climatic Parameters Influencing on Potato Yield with Climate Change Paradigm (Studied Case, in Kermanshah Province)
Climate change is one of the most important challenges in recent years. Heavy flood, hot weather, early coldness, most of drought replications, risen of sea water level, pests and plant disease ,reducing of ozone layer thickness, global worming ,and melting ices, are cases that introduced climate change issue in recent decades more. Climate is one of the most important factors for crop chang...
متن کاملThe Study of Most Important Climatic Parameters Influencing on Potato Yield with Climate Change Paradigm (Studied Case, in Kermanshah Province)
Climate change is one of the most important challenges in recent years. Heavy flood, hot weather, early coldness, most of drought replications, risen of sea water level, pests and plant disease ,reducing of ozone layer thickness, global worming ,and melting ices, are cases that introduced climate change issue in recent decades more. Climate is one of the most important factors for crop chang...
متن کاملElucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.
Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do c...
متن کاملEconomic Implications of Global Climate Change for World Agriculture
This paper challenges the hypothesis that negative yield effects in key temperate grain producing regions of the world resulting from global climate change would have a serious impact on world food production. Model results demonstrate that even with concurrent productivity losses in the major grain producing regions of the world, global warming will not seriously disrupt world agricultural mar...
متن کامل